The View From Third

After Yankees Closer Mariano Rivera tore his ACL last week, the team must find a replacement for arguably the greatest Closer in history. The optimist will look no further than set-up man David Robertson, who has impressive numbers this season (he has an ERA of 0.00 in 12 IP with a miniscule 0.833 WHIP and a whopping 15.8 K/9IP). From a pitching stance, he looks more than capable of replacing Rivera, even if his ERA increases, his career and peripheral numbers show he has the stuff to close.

Plus, they have former Braves and Rays Closer Rafael Soriano to take over Robertson’s set-up duties, or even Close if Robertson struggles, the ninth Inning still looks solid for the Pinstripes.

But the pessimist will point to the fact that now the 7th Inning will be weaker, which is likely true, although it could be an opportunity for someone to shine. I think the real damage could be psychological.

Rivera has been such a dominant presence for years with the Yankees, that most teams truly believe that if they trail the Yanks by the end of the 8th, its game over. It also makes you wonder how many players grip the bat just a little tighter in the 8th, believing that it is their last chance to win. Will Robertson strike fear into their hearts like Rivera? Highly unlikely, especially in the short term. So the lose of Rivera, while he may be replaced statistically, can anyone replace the psychological damage he causes to other teams? And will the Yankees have the same swagger in the 9th?

On the weekend, Boston made a curious trade, acquiring aging OF Marlon Byrd from the Cubs for young RP Michael Bowden. Clearly they were attempting to help replace an injured OF, with both Jacoby Elsbury and Carl Crawford already out with injuries, but is an aging, struggling Outfielder the solution to a bad start?

Byrd was hitting a woeful .070/.149/.070 in 47 PAs with the Cubs (he did go 1 for 4 in his Sox debut), but even if he returned to his career avg as a hitter (.278/.337/.415) could he really make much of an impact? I know the Sox do have a thin OF due to injuries, but as a team they are hitting .281/.336/.463, ranking above average in every category so the offense doesn’t look too bad. Their pitching on the other hand has been awful. They have a 6.56 ERA and a 1.549 WHIP, placing them dead last in both major pitching indicators. To make matters worse, their Bullpen is even worse, allowing 6.67 R/G and have blown half their games, plus only have 3 holds. So why they would give up on a young, promising RP for an aging OF makes the move even more questionable.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, they then sent Daniel Bard back to the Bullpen on Monday night. This seems to make sense given their bullpen woes, and frankly I don’t know why they even used him as a starter at all. He had been groomed in the Minors to be the next Closer if/when Jonathan Papelbon left (he went to the Phils in the off season). But rather than give him the Closer duties, they move him into the rotation. I think you can make the case that a good SP is more valuable then a good RP, but if you have been grooming a guy for years to be your next Closer, why change that plan all of a sudden, putting his arm (IE his career) in jeopardy?

They would have been better off leaving Bard in the Bullpen to Close, even though they acquired another Closer (Mark Melancon from the Astros). Bard had shown he had good stuff out of the pen (he has never had an ERA above 3.65 – his first season in 09 and had improved on his WHIP and raised his K/BB ratio each of his 3 years in the pen).

Although he is finally where he should have always been, it makes you wonder what kind of decisions are being made and by who. If the team doesn’t settle and start getting their roles defined soon, it may be too late for the 2012 Sox.

There comes a point in every athlete’s career where he must leave the game he loves. Some are fortunate enough to be able to walk away from the game on their own terms, some are forced to retire due to injury, but perhaps worst of all are those who have to retire because there’s simply no more interest in their service.

Since Major League Baseball implemented its new drug testing policy, making stimulants like uppers or “greenies” now illegal, it has become a lot harder for older players to be productive throughout the long marathon 162 game schedule. As a result, teams are relying more on younger players, who are less likely to wear down and are often cheaper. Many former stars who would still feel that they have a year or two left now in their career find their being left out and having to retire even though they feel they can still contribute. Even Superstar are not immune, look at Pedro Martinez, Jermaine Dye, Garry Sheffield. All are former All-Stars who were not resigned even thought their last season was productive.

This season is no different with several stars, some even potential Hall of Famers being left out in the cold. With only weeks away from opening season players such as Johnny Damon, Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, all of whom will get Hall Of Fame consideration, are still without contracts and their major-league future looks very bleak at this point.
Could some of these guys still be signed? Sure there are always injuries, players not performing up to expectations were some will drop their prices making teams more willing to gamble on. But its unlikely that all will be back. Another factor that may help them this year is the new scheduling due to realighment (there are now 15 teams in each League) which will see interleague games all season long. Teams will now have to rely more on the DH because they’ll be playing more interleague games. Older players who maybe aren’t as able to play the field anymore, such as Johnny Damon, Vlad Guerrero and Miguel Tejada may seem more value in the eyes of teams because they can use them occasionally in the field and then as a full-time DH for interleague play.

Some of the more predominant players may find homes if they get a lucky break and are willing to lower their prices, but most may be seeing the sun set on their career. Sad to see them go out like that, but it reminds us that Baseball may be a game, but its first and foremost a business.

Earlier this off-season, the Jays announced that they would not hand out any long-term (8 to 10 year) contracts. Normally this policy would seem to a lot of sense, after all most free agents are in their early 30s so signing them for 10 years generally means getting some very productive years early on, then overpaying in the final years. Big market teams can afford this risk, but it can really hamstring a mid-market team like the Jays for seasons. But with every rule there is always an exception, and this year his name is Prince.

Prince Fielder is not only a fierce offense of weapon (a career mark of .282/.390/.540 with 230 HRs) and is only 27 years old! If the Jays were to sign him to a 10 year contract he would only be 38 when the contract ends and likely much more productive than a 40 some-year-old. Now that’s not to say he’ll be as productive and it’s very likely that his last year or two he may not be worth the money they sign him for but overall for the life of the contract you should get a lot of bang for your buck. This is a guy who has hit at least .271 every year he has played in the Big leagues except once (in 2006 he hit .261) with 28 HRs every year since 2006 (his first full season). You pair him with current Jays slugger José Bautista a very formidable middle of the lineup right-left punch. Plus it would also take a lot of pressure off of Adam Lind, who presumably would hit fifth behind Fielder and Batista allowing him to be more relaxed and see better pitches to hit.

While it’s true the Jays need starting pitching more than they need another slugger, it’s hard to deny that Fielder wouldn’t help them win a few extra games and with the added offense it could take some pressure off their young starters and allow them to go deeper into games. After all if you’re scoring for 5 or 6 runs per game for your pitcher, it makes it a lot easier for him to pitch later into games then if you’re only scoring 3 or 4. It allows him a greater margin of error so he doesn’t have to be as fine with his pitches and doesn’t need to worry as much about making a mistake.

Would Fielder make the Jays playoff contender this year? Probably not but given that there are no real impact pitchers left and no real impact hitters available that could help the Jays it might be worthwhile taking a shot at signing him to a long-term deal. After all even 2013 and 2014 he will still only be in his late 20s or 30. And as much as we love José Batista he’s not to be around forever so this helps them transition from one slugger to another. Plus if young starters, like Kyle Drabek, Henderson Alvarez, Dustin McGowan, etc reach their potential, and/or the addition of a new starter in 2013 or 2014, this could be a very formidable team going forward. And let’s not forget starting in 2013 there will be an extra playoff spot for them to compete for as well. Maybe signing Fielder won’t be the boon that I think it could be but I certainly think it’s worth considering and after all it’s only money; the Jays won’t have to give up any young players to get him. I think it’s something to really think about.